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Our study is based on detailed modeling of China’s electricity systems, and their impact on the economy, employment, and public health. The study’s electricity analysis uses state-of-the-art capacity expansion and hourly dispatch models (PLEXOS), focused on the years 2025, 2030, and 2035. The models are based on a detailed representation of China’s electricity system, including hourly provincial loads, interprovincial and interregional transmission constraints, region-specific wind and solar profiles, and recent (2021) renewable energy and electricity storage cost projections for China.
本次研究详细模拟了中国电力系统及其对经济、就业和公共健康的影响。本研究以2025年、2030年和2035年为主要时间节点，使用最先进的容量扩展与小时调度模型（PLEXOS）进行电力分析。模型基于对中国电力系统的详细表述，包括每小时省级负荷、跨省和跨区域输电约束、区域风电和太阳能发电概况，以及对中国可再生能源和储能成本的最近新预测（2021年）。
 
The study considers two main scenarios: a Current Policy scenario, in which the annual deployment of wind and solar generation is limited to current government goals; and, a Clean Energy scenario, in which the share of non-fossil generation in China rises to 80% in 2035. Several sensitivity cases test variations on the Clean Energy scenario, focused on system reliability.
本报告分析了两个主要情景，分别是：（1）现有政策情景，在该情景下，年度风电和太阳能发电部署仅限于政府当前制定的目标；（2）清洁能源情景，在该情景下，到2035年中国非化石能源发电量占比提高到80%。以系统可靠性为重点，通过多个敏感性情景，对清洁能源情景下的变化进行了测试。
 
In both scenarios, wind and solar generation are the lowest cost and most scalable non-fossil generation resources. In the Current Policy scenario, combined wind and solar generation capacity is consistent with the government’s goal of 1,200 GW by 2030 and rises further to 1,943 GW by 2035; the share of non-fossil generation is aligned with the government’s goal of 50% by 2030 and rises to 60% by 2035 (Table 1). In the Clean Energy scenario, wind and solar generation capacity nearly achieves the current 2030 target in 2025 and rises to 1,994 GW in 2030 and 3,069 GW in 2035; the share of non-fossil generation rises to 65% by 2030 and 80% by 2035.
在这两个情景下，风力发电和太阳能发电是成本最低、最适合规模化发展的非化石发电资源。在现有政策情景下，风电和太阳能发电容量符合中国政府提出的到2030年达到12亿千瓦和到2035年达到19.43亿千瓦的目标；非化石能源发电量占比符合政府提出的到2030年达到50%和到2035年达到60%的目标（见表1）。在清洁能源情景下，风电和太阳能发电容量在2025年接近实现当前的2030年目标，到2030年达到19.94亿千瓦，到2035年达到30.69亿千瓦；非化石能源发电量占比到2030年提高到65%，到2035年达到80%。
 
 
本文原稿作者：
来自劳伦斯伯克利国家实验室的Nikit Abhyankar、Jiang Lin*、Fritz Kahrl、Shengfei Yin、Umed Paliwal、Xu Liu、Nina Khanna、Amol Phadke和Qian Luo；
来自加州大学伯克利分校高曼公共政策学院环境中心的David Wooley；
来自Energy Innovation的Mike O’Boyle、Olivia Ashmoore、Robbie Orvis、Michelle Solomon。