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In its World Economic Outlook October 2021, the International Monetary Fund noted the various impediments to an economic rebound in the second half of 2021 described above. But it has revised down its forecast for global economic growth in 2021 by just 10 basis points to 5.9%. More tellingly, it has maintained its forecast for global growth of 4.9% in 2022, in an apparent show of confidence that the headwinds of recent months will not linger long enough or substantially enough to hurt economic prospects next year.
在国际货币基金组织2021年10月发布的《世界经济展望》中，提到了上文所述的2021年下半年经济反弹所面临的诸多障碍。但国际货币基金组织仅将2021年的全球经济增长预测向下修正了10个基点，调整为5.9%。更重要的是，国际货币基金组织维持了2022年全球经济增长4.9%的预测，这表明该组织并不认为最近几个月的挑战会持续太长时间，其严重程度不足以影响2022年的经济前景。
 
Our view remains cautiously upbeat as well. The principal reason for this optimism is our baseline scenario for the global pandemic. There are several reasons why the headwinds to growth induced by the pandemic are likely to dissipate:
我们同样坚持谨慎乐观的态度。我们之所以持这种乐观的态度，主要原因在于全球疫情基线情景。有多个原因可以解释疫情对经济增长造成的障碍可能逐步消失，例如：
 
The rollout of vaccines is improving, even in countries which were initially slow to vaccinate. As we write this, India is vaccinating its population at a rate of roughly 8 million every day. Malaysia similarly overcame teething problems and has now fully vaccinated close to 90% of its adult population, an achievement on par with most developed countries.
疫苗普及正在加速，即使那些最初接种缓慢的国家也是如此。正如我们在之前的报告中所提到的，印度每天约800万人接种疫苗。马来西亚同样克服了初期的问题，目前接近90%的成年人口已经完成疫苗接种，这一成就与大部分发达国家相比也毫不逊色。
 
Large populous countries such as India and Indonesia are experiencing precipitous declines in COVID-19infections, even when vaccination rates are not high, suggesting a good degree of resistance within the population.
印度、印尼等人口众多的国家，在疫苗接种率不高的情况下，新冠新增病例数依旧能急剧下降，表明人口对新冠的抵抗力在增强。
 
Treatment regimens for the illnesses resulting from COVID-19 are also improving. Better clinical management and a wider range of medications have helped to bring down the fatality rate, while also reducing the chances that an infected patient’s condition turns critical. The imminent introduction of new drugs such as Merck’s antiviral drug, Molnupiravir, which can reduce the risk of hospitalization and death in at-risk patients by 50% will go further in making the disease a less terrifying one and one which people can learn to live with.
新冠肺炎治疗药物也在逐渐完善。良好的临床管理和更多药物的出现，帮助降低了新冠肺炎患者的致死率以及病情恶化的几率。默克制药的抗病毒药物Molnupiravir可将高危患者住院治疗和死亡的风险降低50%，这些新药上市将进一步降低新冠肺炎的严重性，使人们能够逐步学会与病毒共存。