Perhaps the most influential management thinker alive, Jim Collins addressed the reasons companies succeed and fail in bestselling books like Good to Great and Built to Last. In their new book, Great by Choice: Uncertainty, Chaos and Luck — Why Some Thrive Despite Them All, Collins and co-author Morten T. Hansen studied leadership in turbulent times, a topic they chose in 2002 that could not be more relevant today. Below, an exclusive excerpt:
吉姆•柯林斯或许是在世的管理大师中最伟大的一位，在其畅销书《从优秀到卓越》（Good to Great）和《基业长青》（Built to Last）中，他阐述了公司成功和失败的原因。在与莫顿•T•汉森合著的新书——《选择伟大：不确定性、混乱和运气——一些公司缘何在大多数公司失败时仍立于不败之地》（Great by Choice: Uncertainty, Chaos and Luck — Why Some Thrive Despite Them All）中，吉姆•柯林斯对动荡时期的领导力展开了研究。虽然这一课题是他们在2002年时选定的，但是在目前的大背景下，这一话题更具有深刻的意义。以下为新书的独家摘要：

We cannot predict the future. But we can create it.
虽然我们不能预测未来，但是我们可以创造未来。

Think back to 15 years ago, and consider what’s happened since, the destabilizing events — in the world, in your country, in the markets, in your work, in your life — that defied all expectations. We can be astonished, confounded, shocked, stunned, delighted, or terrified, but rarely prescient. None of us can predict with certainty the twists and turns our lives will take. Life is uncertain, the future unknown.
想想15年前的情景，再想想15年来发生的一切，不确定事件——全世界、各个国家、各种市场、个人工作和生活——那些发生在所有领域、超乎人们预料的事件，都会使我们深受震惊、困惑，或开心或恐惧，但是我们很少能对此进行预测。任何一个人都无法对生命中即将出现的动荡给予准确的预测。生命中充满了不确定性，未来更是如此。

We began the nine-year research project behind this book in 2002, when America awoke from its false sense of stability, safety, and wealth entitlement. The long-running bull market crashed. The government budget surplus flipped back to deficits. The terrorist attacks of Sept. 11, 2001, horrified and enraged people everywhere, and war followed. Meanwhile, throughout the world, technological change and global competition continued their relentless, disruptive march. It led us to a simple question: Why do some companies thrive in uncertainty, even chaos, and others do not? When buffeted by tumultuous events, when hit by big, fast-moving forces that we can neither predict nor control, what distinguishes those who perform exceptionally well from those who underperform or worse?
自2002年开始，我们对本书的主题展开了研究。当时美国刚刚从稳定、安全和财富权利的错误观念中清醒。长期存在的牛市出现崩溃。政府预算盈余不复存在，一路下跌为财政赤字。2011年9月11日的恐怖袭击，使全美人民备感恐慌和愤怒，战争随即爆发。同时，世界范围内，技术变革和充满了破坏性的全球竞争继续无情地上演着。这就让我们想到了一个非常简单的问题：为什么有些公司可以在充满不确定性、甚至是混乱的背景下取得成功，而其他的公司却无法做到呢？当不断遭受动荡事件的袭击，不断受到既无法预测、又无法控制的快速变化的因素影响时，一部分公司依然能逆风飞扬；在与那些表现不佳或糟糕的公司相比时，是哪些特质让它们显得如此与众不同呢？

We don’t choose study questions. They choose us. Sometimes one of the questions just grabs us around the throat and growls, “I’m not going to release my grip and let you breathe until you answer me!” This study grabbed us because of our own persistent angst and gnawing sense of vulnerability in a world that feels increasingly disordered.
可以说，不是我们选择了研究课题，而是研究课题选择了我们。有时，其中一个问题一直是我们耳边咆哮，“除非你回答我，否则我就不会放过你，不会让你有喘息的机会！”长期以来，在混乱嘈杂的世界里，我们非常容易受到不良信息的影响。正是这种持续存在的愤怒和痛苦的感觉，让我们日益关注这一课题。

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